1986 Pacific typhoon season

Fewer storms, harder forecasts

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued warnings on 27 western North Pacific tropical cyclones in 1986: three super typhoons, 16 typhoons and eight tropical storms. That was four below its climatological mean of 31, the second year running with a shortfall. JTWC's list includes Typhoon Georgette, which began in the eastern Pacific, faded in the central Pacific and regenerated west of the Date Line. The site archive counts 26 tropical storms and 18 typhoons from US-agency one-minute winds and does not carry Georgette in its western Pacific list. Other season lists count 29 named storms and 19 typhoons, adding systems that only the Japan Meteorological Agency or China's weather service tracked with ten-minute winds.

JTWC called the season unusual and difficult. Only four storms ran straight west, against seven in 1985, and three more fell into its erratic category, the hardest group to forecast. The worst problems came from storms born in the active August monsoon trough and in an extremely busy winter. Accumulated cyclone energy in the site's archive reached 324.6.

Two Category 5 typhoons before midsummer

Typhoon Judy opened the season in early February with a classic recurving track between Guam and the Philippines, and Typhoon Ken formed southwest of Guam in late April. Typhoon Lola followed in May as a twin to Cyclone Namu south of the equator; JTWC noted that strong low-latitude westerlies can spin up storms in both hemispheres at once. Lola drifted east over Pohnpei, where authorities called it the worst battering in 28 years, since Typhoon Ophelia in 1958. It then turned northwest and intensified quickly, and the archive puts its peak at 150 kt and 910 hPa late on 19 May, the highest wind of the year.

Typhoon Peggy reached 140 kt on 7 July east of the Philippines, and its 900 hPa is the season's lowest pressure in the archive. It had weakened to 95 kt by the time it struck northern Luzon on 8 July. Newspaper accounts cited by JTWC reported 93 deaths, 16 missing and damage near $2.5 million on Luzon, mostly from torrential rain, plus two deaths in southern Taiwan. Peggy came ashore in southern China about 80 nm east of Hong Kong on 11 July as a 55 kt tropical storm, and widespread flooding followed. Peggy's total came to 333 casualties and US$2.5 million in damage in 1986 dollars.

Typhoon Nancy struck northeastern Taiwan in June and crossed the Korea Strait, where flooding left 12 people dead or missing and soaked 22,477 acres of farmland in southern Korea. Tropical Storm Sarah looked on satellite imagery as if it crossed Luzon in early August, but reconnaissance later showed its low-level center had stayed east and recurved. Sarah killed 14 people in Japan.

August's monsoon trough: Vera, Tip and Georgette

Through most of August an intense monsoon trough stretched across the whole western North Pacific, the strongest since 1974. Typhoon Tip and Georgette went through a classic binary interaction northeast of Guam, with the smaller Georgette looping around Tip until Tip absorbed it on 16 August. JTWC said the pairing inflated its forecast errors for both storms.

Typhoon Vera caused JTWC more forecast trouble than any other 1986 storm. It formed as a monsoon depression that kept relocating, and post-analysis split it into two cyclones, while the Japan Meteorological Agency kept one continuous storm. The archive peaks Vera at 110 kt on 22 August. Early warnings spared Okinawa more than light damage and one fisherman's death; seven people died in Shanghai as Vera passed 160 nm offshore, and six died in South Korea, with more than $1 million in damage there. Later totals give 23 deaths across the path and US$22 million in South Korean damage in 1986 dollars.

Typhoon Wayne's 20-day wander

JTWC rated Typhoon Wayne probably the most interesting storm of the year. Over about 20 days it struck Luzon once and Taiwan twice, threatened Hong Kong twice, dissipated and reformed, and passed through the Luzon Strait three times, the last on 2 September. It peaked at 90 kt on 4 September as it sped west across the South China Sea. The archive records 528 hours for Wayne, the longest track of the season.

JTWC reported 52 deaths and 97 injuries in Taiwan, 19 deaths on Luzon and dozens of deaths in Vietnam, where Wayne ended near the Gulf of Tonkin. Wayne killed 490 people along its whole path, most of them in Vietnam, and US$399 million in damage in 1986 dollars.

Taiwan floods and an autumn shift toward the Philippines

Typhoon Abby, Typhoon Ben and Typhoon Carmen all formed southeast of Guam in September and early October. Abby struck east-central Taiwan with 90 kt winds and torrential rain; JTWC reported 13 deaths and crop and property damage estimated at $81 million. Ben reached 120 kt and recurved east of Japan, and 13 people died on a fishing boat near Pagan as it passed. Carmen passed between Rota and Saipan and peaked at 100 kt on its way north.

From mid-October the main genesis area moved west toward the Philippines. A depression that later became Tropical Storm Dom brought extensive flooding to the Philippines, killing 16 people and causing US$4 million in damage on Luzon in 1986 dollars. Typhoon Ellen passed about 90 nm south of Subic Bay before a surge of northeasterly winds pushed it toward Hainan. Typhoon Forrest reached 110 kt near the Northern Marianas, where only one building was left standing on Agrihan, and Tropical Storm Georgia crossed the central Philippines to Vietnam.

A record winter and step-like tracks

JTWC counted seven tropical cyclones in November and December, against an average of four, and described the number of December typhoons as an all-time record. Tropical Storm Herbert and Tropical Storm Ida crossed the central Philippines within a week of each other in November, and Typhoon Joe recurved just east of Luzon while its rain bands soaked the north of the island.

Typhoon Kim, Typhoon Marge and Typhoon Norris followed step-like tracks. Passing mid-latitude troughs bent each storm northwest for a time, but none reached far enough south to break the subtropical ridge, so each turned west again. Kim peaked at 135 kt on 2 December and passed 15 nm north of Saipan near that strength. JTWC reported the whole island without power or water, about a third of its power poles down, 14 injuries, one heart-attack death and damage near $15 million. Marge crossed the central Philippines just before Christmas, and Norris crossed the southern islands on New Year's Eve and ended as a depression south of Hong Kong in early January 1987.