1995 Atlantic hurricane season

Second only to 1933

The National Hurricane Center's season summary counted 19 named cyclones, 8 tropical storms and 11 hurricanes. Since 1871 only 1933, with 21, had produced more, and only 1969, with 12, had produced more hurricanes; 1916 and 1950 matched the 11. The previous 50-year average stood at 9.6 named storms and 5.6 hurricanes. The site's archive agrees on 19 tropical storms and 11 hurricanes, counts 5 of them as major hurricanes, and adds 2 depressions that never reached storm strength for 21 tracked systems. Its accumulated cyclone energy of 227.4 ranks among the highest on record.

The NHC authors tied the activity to weak vertical wind shear. From August to October, shear ran below normal across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico, by up to 7 m/s in the central Caribbean. A weak mid-level trough over the western North Atlantic left a gap in the subtropical ridge, and many of the year's storms recurved through it without touching land. Tropical waves from West Africa seeded 17 of the 19 named storms; only Barry and Dean grew from other disturbances. La Niña conditions favored the season, and 1995 opened a long run of active Atlantic years.

Allison, Barry, Chantal and Dean

Hurricane Allison formed in the northwestern Caribbean on 3 June and became a minimal hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico the next day, the only time aircraft saw even a partial eyewall. Shear weakened it just below hurricane force before it came ashore near Alligator Point in north Florida on 5 June, with winds the NHC estimated at 28 to 31 m/s. Its surge reached at least 2.1 m in Apalachee Bay. The NHC attributed three deaths in western Cuba to collapsing structures, reported no direct deaths in the United States, and put United States damage at $1.7 million in 1995 dollars.

July brought three tropical storms that did little harm. Barry grew from a frontal low between Bermuda and the Carolinas and crossed Nova Scotia before turning extratropical near Newfoundland. Chantal formed east of the Lesser Antilles, curved around the subtropical ridge and passed west of Bermuda. Dean formed in the Gulf late on 30 July only about 100 km from the upper Texas coast and crossed it near Freeport hours later. Its rain reached 426 mm near Houston, and the NHC estimated about $500,000 in damage with no injuries or deaths.

Erin's two Florida landfalls

Hurricane Erin formed over the southeastern Bahamas on 31 July and became a hurricane near Rum Cay that night. An upper low over Florida bent its track across much of the Bahama chain and toward east-central Florida, where it came ashore near Vero Beach around 0600 UTC on 2 August as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of about 39 m/s. Erin crossed the peninsula as a tropical storm, regained strength in the eastern Gulf and struck the panhandle on 3 August. Doppler radar supported an estimate of 44 m/s, Category 2, in a small part of the northeastern eyewall near Fort Walton Beach at 1330 UTC; by the time the eye reached the coast about 1600 UTC, the NHC estimated 39 m/s.

The NHC reported no deaths on land in the Bahamas or Florida but six drownings offshore, three of them crew presumed lost when the gambling ship Club Royale sank east of Cape Canaveral. More than 2,000 homes were damaged around Pensacola Beach, Navarre Beach and Mary Esther. Insured losses came to $375 million, and the NHC doubled that to a total United States estimate of $700 million in 1995 dollars.

Five cyclones at once in late August

Hurricane Felix opened August as the first Cape Verde hurricane of the year. It strengthened fast after reconnaissance first reached the eye on 11 August and peaked at 120 kt with a 929 mb pressure on 12 August, about 850 km northeast of Puerto Rico. An eyewall cycle and rising shear then weakened it, and it passed about 120 km south-southwest of Bermuda. Felix never brought sustained storm-force winds to the United States, but its swells eroded the Outer Banks and the New Jersey shore. The NHC confirmed eight drownings, three off North Carolina and five off New Jersey.

On 27 and 28 August five tropical cyclones were active at the same time. Humberto, Iris, Karen and Luis all came from four consecutive African waves, and Jerry had already moved ashore in Florida. Iris and Humberto interacted in a Fujiwhara pairing that sent Iris west-southwest toward the Leeward Islands, and later Iris pulled Karen around and into its own circulation, absorbing it on 3 September far out at sea. Humberto peaked at 95 kt without touching land, and Iris reached the same wind southeast of Bermuda on 1 September.

Iris weakened to a tropical storm as it drifted into the Lesser Antilles, where the NHC reported two deaths in mudslides on Martinique and a media count of one on Guadeloupe; 411 mm of rain fell at Ducos in 24 hours. Tropical Storm Jerry, never stronger than 35 kt, soaked Florida and the Carolinas. Flooding killed three people each in South Carolina and North Carolina, and the NHC's incomplete damage estimate came to $26.5 million in 1995 dollars. Tropical Storm Gabrielle came ashore just south of La Pesca, Mexico, on 11 August, near hurricane strength, with no reported deaths.

Luis and Marilyn in the northeastern Caribbean

Hurricane Luis formed near the Cape Verde Islands on 28 August and reached its peak of 130 kt between 0600 and 1200 UTC on 4 September, when aircraft measured flight-level winds of 146 kt. The NHC's season summary table lists a lower 62 m/s, but its storm report sets the peak at 130 kt, as the archive does. The center passed directly over Barbuda on 5 September, with sustained winds near 59 m/s in the eyewall, and the large southern eyewall raked Antigua, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin and Anguilla. Luis reached its lowest pressure, 935 mb, late on 7 September, then recurved west of Bermuda and crossed Newfoundland on 11 September as it became extratropical.

The NHC counted 16 deaths from Luis: nine on St. Martin, two each on Antigua and Puerto Rico, one each on Guadeloupe and Dominica, and one in Newfoundland days later. Structural damage reached an estimated 70 percent on Barbuda and 60 percent on St. Martin, and Antigua's prime minister said nearly half the island's homes were destroyed. The NHC placed damage, with great uncertainty, at $2.5 billion in 1995 dollars, outside the United States, including $1.8 billion estimated for Sint Maarten alone. Near Newfoundland the liner Queen Elizabeth 2 met a wave of about 29 m.

Hurricane Marilyn followed ten days later. It passed near Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe on 14 September, where Saint-Claude recorded 508 mm of rain in 12 hours, and hit the U.S. Virgin Islands on 15 and 16 September as a strengthening Category 2 hurricane. Its strongest eastern eyewall crossed St. Thomas, where the NHC estimated 1-minute winds near 49 m/s. Marilyn reached its peak of 100 kt and 949 mb north of Puerto Rico on 16 and 17 September, then lost strength over water that Luis had cooled by upwelling.

The NHC attributed eight direct deaths to Marilyn: five on St. Thomas, one each on St. John and St. Croix, and one on Culebra, most of them people on boats. About 80 percent of homes and businesses on St. Thomas were destroyed and at least 10,000 people lost their homes. The NHC estimated United States losses in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at $1.5 billion in 1995 dollars, about double the $875 million in insured losses; the Virgin Islands Bureau of Economic Research put economic loss at $3 billion.

Opal and Roxanne around the Yucatán

Hurricane Opal formed south-southeast of Cozumel on 27 September and drifted over the Yucatán peninsula for three days before becoming a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche on 2 October. Over water of 28 to 29°C, it deepened 53 mb in 24 hours and reached 916 mb and 130 kt around 1000 UTC on 4 October, about 465 km south-southwest of Pensacola. That pressure was the lowest of the season. An eyewall replacement then weakened it, and Opal made landfall at Pensacola Beach near 2200 UTC as a marginal Category 3 hurricane with a 942 mb pressure. The NHC estimated 51 m/s winds in a narrow coastal swath between Destin and Panama City, with Category 1 or 2 winds across most of the panhandle.

Storm surge and breaking waves did most of Opal's coastal damage. Surge levels of 1.5 to 3.0 m rose to debris lines of 3.0 to 7.6 m where waves rode on top. The NHC counted 59 deaths directly associated with Opal: 31 in Guatemala and 19 in Mexico from flooding during its formative days, and 9 in the United States, mostly from falling trees and one from a tornado. None came from storm surge. It estimated United States damage at $3 billion in 1995 dollars, including $2.1 billion in insured losses. Opal was the first Category 3 hurricane to strike the Florida panhandle since Eloise in 1975.

Hurricane Roxanne formed east of Nicaragua on 7 October and reached its peak of 100 kt and 956 mb just east of Cozumel late on 10 October. It struck the mainland just north of Tulum early on 11 October as a Category 3 hurricane, crossed the Yucatán and then meandered in the Bay of Campeche for almost a week, battering the coast from Campeche to Veracruz with 4 to 6 m waves before a cold front pushed its remnants inland on 21 October.

The NHC cited a newspaper estimate of 14 deaths from Roxanne, five of them when a petroleum work barge carrying 245 people sank. Mexican authorities reported more than 40,000 homes damaged across five states, and floods in Campeche and Tabasco were the worst since 1927. Because Opal had struck the same region days earlier, the NHC gave only a combined damage estimate for the two storms on the Yucatán peninsula: $1.5 billion in 1995 dollars.

Storms past O and four retired names

The rest of the autumn stayed at sea. Hurricane Noel wandered in the central Atlantic from late September into October, and Tropical Storm Pablo dissipated in strong shear east of Barbados. Tropical Storm Sebastien formed east of the Leeward Islands on 20 October and fell apart near the Virgin Islands. Hurricane Tanya, which had subtropical traits early on, peaked at 75 kt on 31 October and became extratropical as it passed the Azores on 1 November, bringing gusts of 30 m/s to Lajes on Terceira. 1995 was the first season since naming began in 1950 to use names beyond the letter O.

The World Meteorological Organization retired Luis, Marilyn, Opal and Roxanne after the season, and Lorenzo, Michelle, Olga and Rebekah replaced them for 2001. The NHC's own forecasts improved that year: its mean official track errors fell below the 1985 to 1994 averages at every forecast period, though the season summary found no skill in its intensity forecasts beyond 36 hours.