1998 Atlantic hurricane season

A warm ocean and a burst after a late start

The National Hurricane Center's season summary counted 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes, against long-term averages of 10 and 6. With 33 hurricanes from 1995 through 1998, the basin set its largest four-year total since reliable records began in the mid-1940s. The site's archive matches the 14 storms and 10 hurricanes, counts 3 major hurricanes and 1 Category 5, and puts accumulated cyclone energy at 181.2.

From August through October nearly the whole Atlantic between the equator and 60°N ran warmer than normal, by as much as 1°C from the Caribbean to Africa. The NHC authors linked the rise in activity since 1995 to a multidecadal swing of the North Atlantic into a warm phase, and no storm formed where shear ran above normal. The 1997–98 El Niño ended in spring, and La Niña arrived by June.

Tropical Storm Alex did not form until 27 July, and a quiet fortnight followed. Then ten named storms formed between 19 August and 23 September. On 25 and 26 September Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl were all hurricanes at once, which the NHC noted had last happened in 1893.

Bonnie, Charley and Earl reach the U.S. coast

Hurricane Bonnie peaked at 100 kt and 954 mb east of San Salvador in the Bahamas on 23 August, drifted when its steering collapsed, then turned north and came ashore near Wilmington, North Carolina, around 0330 UTC on 27 August as a Category 2 hurricane. It was the third hurricane in three years to hit that coast directly. The NHC recorded three deaths, one of them possibly indirect, and estimated United States damage at $720 million in 1998 dollars, twice the insured total. Hampton Roads in Virginia took some of the worst damage.

Tropical Storm Charley came ashore near Port Aransas, Texas, on 22 August with winds near 40 kt, below its 60 kt peak over the Gulf. Its remnants stalled over Del Rio, which recorded 427 mm of rain on 23 August. The NHC counted 13 deaths in Texas, nine of them in Del Rio, and cited reports of seven more in Ciudad Acuña, Mexico; it put U.S. losses at $50 million. Hurricane Danielle, a compact Cape Verde hurricane, stayed at sea and reached 90 kt four separate times before striking Britain as an extratropical storm.

Hurricane Earl formed in the Gulf on 31 August and briefly reached Category 2 before coming ashore near Panama City, Florida, early on 3 September as a Category 1 hurricane. Its strongest winds lay far east of the center, so the highest surge, near 2.4 m, hit the Big Bend coast. The NHC attributed three direct deaths to Earl. Tropical Storm Frances followed in September, crossing the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi on 11 September with a surge of up to 1.8 to 2.4 m along the middle and upper Texas coast.

Georges and its eight landfalls

Hurricane Georges came off Africa in mid-September and reached its peak of 135 kt and 937 mb on 20 September, about 285 nautical miles east of Guadeloupe. Shear weakened it before it struck Antigua and St. Kitts and Nevis early on 21 September with winds near 100 kt. It crossed Puerto Rico that evening at a similar strength and came ashore in the Dominican Republic, 75 nautical miles east of Santo Domingo, on 22 September with winds of 105 kt. Georges then crossed Haiti, eastern Cuba and Key West, where it landed on 25 September at 90 kt, and made its eighth and final landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi, on 28 September, again at 90 kt and 964 mb.

Satellite estimates suggested up to 1,000 mm of rain fell over parts of Hispaniola in 24 hours, and Jayuya in Puerto Rico recorded 720 mm in two days. Slow movement near the Gulf Coast brought 753 mm to Bay Minette, Alabama. The NHC counted 602 direct deaths, most from flash floods and mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and one freshwater drowning in the United States. It estimated total U.S. damage, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, at $5.9 billion in 1998 dollars, of which $2.31 billion fell on the mainland. Nearly 897,000 people evacuated in Florida.

Around Georges, the Atlantic filled up. Hermine barely reached storm strength before landfall in Louisiana. Ivan and Jeanne recurved far to the east through a weakness in the subtropical ridge near 40°W, and Karl also stayed at sea. Lisa became a hurricane in the far north Atlantic in October.

Mitch and the Central American floods

Hurricane Mitch formed in the southwestern Caribbean on 22 October and became a hurricane two days later. It deepened 52 mb in 24 hours and reached 905 mb and 155 kt on 26 October about 50 nautical miles southeast of Swan Island. The NHC called it the strongest October hurricane on record, and its pressure tied Camille's 1969 value as the fourth lowest measured in an Atlantic hurricane. Mitch then turned south toward Honduras, weakened as it interacted with land, and came ashore about 70 nautical miles east of La Ceiba on 29 October with winds of about 70 kt, Category 1.

For a week Mitch crawled across Honduras at under 4 kt, and mountains close to 3 km high wrung out its moisture. Choluteca recorded 911.6 mm of rain. Its remnants regenerated in the Bay of Campeche, and Mitch crossed southwestern Florida near Naples as a tropical storm on 5 November. NHC forecasts had expected a turn to the northwest that did not come until the storm was inland, and underestimated its intensity by up to 75 to 80 kt at 72 hours.

The NHC estimated 9,086 deaths from Mitch, with another 9,191 people listed as missing. U.S. aid officials reported 5,677 deaths in Honduras, 2,863 in Nicaragua, 258 in Guatemala, 239 in El Salvador, 9 in Mexico and 7 in Costa Rica, and 31 people died when the schooner Fantome sank near Guanaja. Later totals give at least 11,000 deaths across Central America and damage of $6.08 billion in 1998 dollars. In Honduras about half the crops were lost and at least 70,000 houses were damaged, and a mudslide at Casitas Volcano buried ten communities in Nicaragua. Two people drowned in the Florida Keys, where the NHC put U.S. damage at $40 million.

A December hurricane and two retired names

Hurricane Nicole formed from a frontal low south of the Canary Islands on 24 November, nearly dissipated in shear, regenerated and reached hurricane strength at 0000 UTC on 1 December over water 2 to 3°C warmer than normal. The World Meteorological Organization retired Georges and Mitch in 1999 and replaced them with Gaston and Matthew for 2004.