2003 Pacific hurricane season

A season without a major hurricane

By the usual yardsticks 2003 was a subdued year in the eastern and central Pacific. No storm reached Category 3, the first such season since 1977, against a long-term average of about four major hurricanes a year. The archive tracks 18 systems between January 11 and October 26, and the season's accumulated cyclone energy comes to 59 on the site's measure, a low total for a basin that often produces seasons several times larger.

Official tallies differ slightly from the site's headline figures because they count different things. The National Hurricane Center and Wikipedia list 16 named storms and 7 hurricanes for the season, all named east of 140°W. The site's count of 17 tropical storms also includes Tropical Storm Yanyan, an out-of-season January system carried in the archive under a western Pacific designation, which peaked at 50 knots and, at 246 hours, was the longest-lived storm on the map. Colorado State University's energy figures, 53.4 units in the eastern Pacific and 3.3 in the central Pacific, place 2003 among the ten least active seasons since 1971; the site's higher total follows US-agency one-minute winds through each storm's whole tropical life in the calendar year, Yanyan included.

Forecasts had pointed toward a near-normal year. Mexico's national weather service predicted 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, and NOAA's central Pacific outlook expected slightly below-average activity because La Niña conditions, which tend to suppress storms in this basin, were expected to develop. Storm numbers ended up close to those expectations; storm strength did not.

A long wait for the first hurricane

Tropical Storm Andres opened the eastern Pacific season on May 19 far south of Baja California and weakened over cooler water without touching land. Tropical Storm Blanca followed in mid-June near the southwestern Mexican coast, and at the end of the month Tropical Storm Carlos formed close to shore and moved inland west of Puerto Escondido early on June 27.

July and early August brought a string of short-lived storms that never came close to hurricane strength. Dolores lasted barely a day as a tropical storm, Enrique topped out at 55 knots before running into cool water, and Felicia stayed disorganized under increasing shear. Guillermo and Hilda formed within two days of each other in August, and outflow from the developing Hilda helped disrupt Guillermo, whose remnant low drifted into the central Pacific. A tropical depression, One-C, formed in the monsoon trough southeast of Hawaii on August 15 and faded within two days.

The first eight named storms all stayed below hurricane strength. Hurricane Ignacio finally broke the run early on August 24, the latest date for the season's first eastern Pacific hurricane since reliable satellite coverage began in 1966. From then on the season picked up: Hurricane Jimena followed within days, Hurricane Linda spent about 12 hours as a hurricane in mid-September, and Hurricane Marty struck Baja California a week later.

October produced the season's last three hurricanes. Hurricane Nora and Hurricane Olaf were both hurricanes on October 5, Nora well offshore and Olaf south of Mexico, and outflow from Olaf helped shear Nora apart as it turned back toward the coast. Hurricane Patricia, the final storm, became a hurricane on October 21 while running parallel to the Mexican coast well offshore, then weakened under westerly shear and dissipated at sea on October 26.

Three storms at the same ceiling

No storm in 2003 exceeded 90 knots, and three reached exactly that figure. Hurricane Ignacio, listed as the season's strongest, peaked on August 24 just 25 nautical miles off the southeastern tip of Baja California, with a central pressure of 970 hPa. Hurricane Jimena matched it on August 30, about 700 nautical miles east of the Hawaiian Islands and just after crossing into the central Pacific. Hurricane Nora reached 90 knots on October 4 far south of Baja California, and its 969 hPa was the lowest pressure of the year.

Hurricane Marty came close behind at 85 knots, a peak it reached on September 22 only hours before landfall. The remaining hurricanes were marginal: Linda and Olaf each peaked at 65 knots and Patricia at 70 knots.

Baja California struck twice

For all its lack of strength, 2003 was a hard year for Mexico. Eight Atlantic and Pacific systems affected the country directly, second only to the nine of 1971 and well above the long-term average of about four, and five of them came from the Pacific.

Hurricane Ignacio crawled northwest at 5 knots or less along the southern Gulf of California and came ashore on August 25 about 20 nautical miles east of La Paz, weakened to 70 knots by the high terrain. Its winds brought down trees, signs and power lines around La Paz, and its slow motion produced heavy rain and serious inland flooding; the National Hurricane Center reports two rescue workers swept to their deaths by floodwaters. The rain also eased an ongoing drought on the peninsula.

Less than a month later Hurricane Marty hit the same region harder. It made landfall near San José del Cabo at 09:30 UTC on September 22 with 85-knot winds, and Cabo San Lucas recorded 10-minute sustained winds of 76 knots with a gust to 102 knots. Marty then tracked up the Gulf of California, bringing strong winds and heavy rain along its length. The Mexican government attributed 12 deaths to it, five in Baja California Sur, five in Sonora and two in Sinaloa, including two people missing and presumed dead. About 4,000 homes were damaged in Baja California Sur and marine interests around La Paz suffered extensive losses. Damage figures compiled on Wikipedia from the EM-DAT disaster database put the total at US$100 million (2003 dollars), the costliest of the season.

Tropical Storm Carlos flooded 44 sparsely populated coastal communities in Oaxaca in late June. The National Hurricane Center's report, based on early press accounts, listed no deaths; later Mexican reports compiled on Wikipedia attribute seven deaths to a rain-triggered mudslide in northwestern Oaxaca and put damage at 86.7 million pesos, about US$8 million (2003 values).

In October, Hurricane Olaf moved inland just west of Manzanillo on October 7 with 50-knot winds, and its slow approach drenched southwestern Mexico, damaging more than 12,000 houses in Jalisco along with crops and roads there and in Guanajuato. Nora reached the coast north of Mazatlán as a poorly defined tropical depression early on October 9, with heavy rain in Sinaloa but no reported casualties. Flooding from Nora, Olaf and the Atlantic's Tropical Storm Larry led to disaster declarations in 14 Mexican states, and moisture from the two Pacific storms later fed flooding near Waco, Texas.

Jimena and the threat to Hawaii

The central Pacific was quiet, with only Tropical Depression One-C forming there and Hurricane Jimena entering from the east. Jimena was the first storm since Hurricane Daniel in 2000 to pose a real threat to Hawaii. Forecasts initially took its center about 50 nautical miles south of the Big Island, and a hurricane watch was posted there on August 31, followed by a tropical storm warning.

Strong southerly shear weakened Jimena quickly from late on August 31, and it fell below hurricane strength on September 1 before passing about 105 nautical miles south of South Point. Gusts reached 50 knots on Kahoolawe and 46 knots at South Point, windward parts of the Big Island received 6 to 10 inches of rain, and surf of 10 to 15 feet pounded the southeast-facing Kau coast. There were no casualties or significant damage. Jimena went on to cross the International Date Line on September 5, the first storm to track through all three Pacific basins since Hurricane Dora in 1999.

Forecasting firsts and names

2003 marked changes in how the Pacific seasons were forecast. On June 12, NOAA issued its first experimental eastern Pacific hurricane outlook, calling for 11 to 15 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes. In Honolulu, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center extended its track and intensity forecasts from three days to five for the first time.

Eastern Pacific storms took their names from the list last used in 1997, with Patricia replacing Pauline, and the season ended at the P name. No names were retired, and no storm was named in the central Pacific.