2008 Atlantic hurricane season

Warm water and weak shear after La Niña

The archive tracks 17 systems between 31 May and 9 November. Sixteen reached tropical storm strength, and the only one that did not was an unnamed October depression in the western Caribbean, known operationally as Tropical Depression Sixteen. Of the eight hurricanes, Hurricane Bertha, Gustav, Ike, Hurricane Omar and Hurricane Paloma reached major hurricane strength of at least 96 knots, but none reached Category 5. The National Hurricane Center's best track gives the same totals, which compares with long-term averages of about 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

The season's accumulated cyclone energy of 145.7 units was nearly double the totals of 2006 and 2007, and the hurricane center put it at roughly 167 percent of the 1951 to 2000 median. Its seasonal summary traces the activity to two factors. The 2007 to 2008 La Niña faded early in the summer, but the atmosphere over the Atlantic stayed favorable, with a broad band of unusually weak vertical wind shear between 10 and 20 degrees north. Sea surface temperatures across the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean were the fifth warmest since 1950.

Forecasters had expected a busy year. Colorado State University's first outlook, in December 2007, called for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes, and it raised that to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes in April. Tropical Storm Risk forecast about 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes, close to what the season delivered.

From an early start to a November major hurricane

The season began a day before its official start. Tropical Storm Arthur formed on 31 May near Belize, where the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Alma met a tropical wave, and came ashore in northeastern Belize that morning with 40-knot winds. Its rains of up to 375 millimeters caused flooding that killed five people in Belize. June then passed without a new storm.

July brought an unusually busy start for so early in the year. Bertha formed south of the Cape Verde Islands on 3 July and lasted 17.25 days as a tropical cyclone, the longest-lived July storm on record in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Cristobal developed off the Georgia coast and passed just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks, and Hurricane Dolly formed in the western Caribbean. Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly were all active on 20 July, the earliest date on record for three simultaneous Atlantic storms.

The peak of the season ran from mid-August through mid-September. Tropical Storm Edouard came ashore on the upper Texas coast on 5 August, and Tropical Storm Fay crossed Hispaniola and Cuba before tracking the length of Florida. Gustav formed on 25 August, Hurricane Hanna three days later, and Ike on 1 September. Tropical Storm Josephine followed off Africa on 2 September but weakened in strong shear before reaching land. Late September added Hurricane Kyle, which struck western Nova Scotia at hurricane strength on 29 September, and Tropical Storm Laura, which began as a subtropical storm far out in the north-central Atlantic.

October stayed active. Tropical Storm Marco formed in the Bay of Campeche and struck the Mexican coast between Tuxpan and Veracruz on 7 October, and Tropical Storm Nana was brief and weak far out at sea. Omar then intensified from 35 knots to 115 knots in about two days while turning northeast across the eastern Caribbean, and the unnamed depression drifted into northeastern Honduras. The last storm, Paloma, formed off Nicaragua on 5 November, became a Category 4 hurricane and weakened over Cuba on 9 November, three weeks before the season's official end.

Gustav, Ike and Paloma lead the intensity list

Gustav was the strongest storm by wind. It became a hurricane within about a day of forming near Bonaire, crossed Haiti's southwestern peninsula and Jamaica, then strengthened quickly over the northwestern Caribbean. It reached its 135-knot peak, with a central pressure of 941 hPa, as it made landfall in Cuba's Pinar del Río province late on 30 August. A station at Paso Real de San Diego recorded a one-minute wind of 135 knots and a gust of 184 knots before it was destroyed, a gust the World Meteorological Organization has confirmed as the highest measured in an Atlantic tropical cyclone.

Ike produced the season's lowest central pressure, 935 hPa, when it peaked at 125 knots on 4 September after strengthening by 70 knots in 24 hours over the open Atlantic. The two storms lead different rankings: the site ranks storms by peak one-minute wind, which puts Gustav first, while rankings by minimum pressure, such as Wikipedia's, put Ike first. Ike's pressure over the Gulf of Mexico also ran unusually low for its winds because its strong winds were spread over such a large area.

Paloma matched Ike's 125-knot peak on 8 November, after gaining 50 knots in 24 hours south of the Cayman Islands. The hurricane center's summary ranked it behind only Hurricane Lenny of 1999 among November Atlantic hurricanes. Paloma then collapsed almost as fast, losing 90 knots in the next 24 hours as strong shear and Cuba tore it apart. Omar peaked at 115 knots on 16 October near the northern Leeward Islands, and Bertha reached 110 knots far east of them on 7 July, making 2008 the first season with a major hurricane in every month from July to November.

Haiti, Cuba and the islands

Haiti suffered the worst loss of life. Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike struck or skirted the country within about three weeks, each adding rain to ground already flooded by the one before. Fay killed three people in Haiti when a bus was swept away by a swollen river, and Gustav killed 77 there directly. Hanna's rains caused severe flooding around Gonaïves, where about 500 people died, and Ike killed 74 more in Haiti. The hurricane center noted that the storms' impacts overlap so much that the death toll from each will likely never be known exactly, and several hundred people remained missing.

Cuba was struck by Fay, Gustav, Ike and Paloma. Gustav's winds and surge caused major damage in Pinar del Río and the Isle of Youth, which the Cuban government estimated at about 2.1 billion US dollars. Less than ten days later, Ike made landfall near Cabo Lucrecia with 115-knot winds, crossed the eastern provinces, then made a second landfall in western Cuba; it damaged about 323,800 homes, destroyed about 43,000 of them, killed seven people and caused damage the Cuban government estimated at about 7.3 billion US dollars. Paloma came ashore near Santa Cruz del Sur in November with 85-knot winds and destroyed nearly 1,500 homes, with damage the Cuban government estimated at 300 million US dollars.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Gustav killed 15 people in Jamaica and 8 in the Dominican Republic, where a landslide caused the deaths. Ike's northern eyewall passed over Grand Turk and South Caicos, where about 95 percent of houses were damaged, before it struck Great Inagua in the southeastern Bahamas. Paloma's eyewall crossed the eastern end of Cayman Brac, where nearly every building was damaged or destroyed, though no direct deaths were reported. Omar passed through the Anegada Passage between the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands, sparing inhabited islands its core; it caused about 5 million US dollars of damage on St. Croix and no known deaths.

Six straight United States landfalls

Starting with Dolly, six consecutive cyclones made landfall in the United States. Dolly peaked at 85 knots just offshore, then came ashore on South Padre Island, Texas, on 23 July as a Category 1 hurricane with 75-knot winds. Its rain, up to 381 millimeters at Harlingen, flooded the lower Rio Grande Valley, and the hurricane center put its United States damage at 1.05 billion dollars. Edouard followed on 5 August between High Island and Sabine Pass, Texas, causing relatively light damage.

Fay made four landfalls in Florida, the first Atlantic storm on record to strike the same state four times, and it strengthened over land to its 60-knot peak near Lake Okeechobee. Moving slowly along the east coast, it dropped more than 700 millimeters of rain near Melbourne, flooded more than 15,000 Florida homes and spawned 81 tornadoes across five states. Fay directly caused 13 deaths, 5 of them in Florida, and about 560 million dollars of damage in the United States. Hanna then came ashore near the North Carolina and South Carolina border on 6 September as a 60-knot tropical storm and caused about 160 million dollars of damage.

Gustav made its final landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on 1 September as a Category 2 hurricane with 90-knot winds. Its surge reached up to 4 meters in the Mississippi Delta and overtopped levees and floodwalls in a few parts of the New Orleans area without widespread flooding of the city. It killed seven people in Louisiana directly and was linked to 41 indirect deaths there, and its United States damage was estimated at 4.3 billion dollars.

Ike was the most destructive storm of the year. Its wind field grew enormous over the Gulf of Mexico, and water began rising along the Texas and Louisiana coasts about a day before the center came ashore at the north end of Galveston Island early on 13 September with 95-knot winds. Surge of about 4.5 to 6.1 meters swept the Bolivar Peninsula, where almost every structure in communities such as Crystal Beach and Gilchrist was razed. Ike caused 20 direct deaths in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas, with up to 64 indirect deaths reported in Texas, and its United States damage of 19.3 billion dollars made it the fourth-costliest hurricane in the country at the time. As an extratropical storm, its remnants brought hurricane-force gusts to the Ohio Valley and were linked to at least 28 direct and indirect deaths. United States damage figures here are the hurricane center's estimates in 2008 dollars.

Records, retired names and forecasting

Marco was a record in miniature: tropical storm-force winds reached no more than about 10 nautical miles from its center, making it the smallest tropical storm since the hurricane center began keeping comparable size records in 1988. Farther from land, the unnamed depression added to heavy rains in Central America in mid-October and was blamed for nine direct deaths there, and Kyle's precursor caused deadly flash floods and mudslides in Puerto Rico that killed six people.

In April 2009 the World Meteorological Organization retired the names Gustav, Ike and Paloma because of the deaths and damage they caused. They were replaced with Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette, first used in 2014.

The season was also a milestone for the hurricane center's forecasts. Its official track forecasts set records for accuracy at every lead time from 12 to 120 hours, with errors 17 to 30 percent smaller than the 2003 to 2007 average, and its intensity forecasts set records at 72 to 120 hours, even though rapid strengthening was unusually common that year. Because Ike's surge was expected to arrive well before its strongest winds, hurricane watches and warnings for the Texas coast were issued earlier than usual.