2022 Pacific hurricane season

A busy year against a quiet forecast

Forecasters did not expect much. NOAA's May outlook called for a below-normal season of 10 to 17 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes and up to 3 major hurricanes, citing near- or below-average sea surface temperatures across the eastern Pacific and neutral ENSO conditions with a chance of La Niña. Mexico's weather service leaned higher, at 14 to 19 named storms. The 1991 to 2020 average for the eastern and central Pacific is about 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

The site's archive records 17 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, with no Category 5. Accumulated cyclone energy, which combines storm strength and duration, comes to 98.8 on the site's definition. No tropical cyclone formed in the central Pacific between 140°W and the Date Line for the third season in a row, although Hurricane Darby crossed into those waters from the east.

The National Hurricane Center's totals are higher, at 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The difference comes from two storms that formed in the Atlantic and crossed Central America intact: Bonnie in July and Julia in October. NHC counts both in its eastern Pacific season, while the site's archive for this season does not include them. For the same reason the Colorado State University energy figure built on NHC data, 116.5 units and near the long-term average, runs above the site's 98.8.

From an early start to a September peak

The season started on 28 May, when Hurricane Agatha formed off southern Mexico and intensified rapidly into a Category 2 hurricane within two days. June brought Hurricane Blas, which stayed well offshore but sent heavy rain into Guerrero, and Tropical Storm Celia, which formed unusually far east near Central America and lingered as a tropical cyclone for about 12 days, the longest tropical stage of the year.

July was the busiest month for strong storms at sea. Bonnie arrived from the Atlantic on 2 July and strengthened into a major hurricane south of Mexico on NHC's track. The day it faded, Hurricane Darby formed and raced to Category 4, and Hurricane Estelle followed in mid-month, paralleling the Mexican coast. Late in the month Hurricane Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette formed close together; the two circled each other in a binary interaction that bent Georgette into a slow hairpin turn.

August was thin. Hurricane Howard brushed Socorro Island early in the month and Tropical Storm Ivette barely reached storm strength before shear pulled it apart, after which the basin went quiet for about two weeks.

September was the peak, with six storms reaching tropical storm strength: Javier, Kay, Lester, Madeline, Newton and, at the end of the month, Orlene. Several hugged the Mexican coast and brought flooding rain. October added Tropical Storm Paine, Julia's brief Pacific passage along the coasts of Nicaragua and El Salvador, and finally Hurricane Roslyn. The last tropical-stage observation in the archive is on 23 October, and no named storm formed in November for the first time since 2017.

Darby, Orlene and Roslyn

Hurricane Darby was the season's strongest and deepest storm. It formed about 500 n mi southwest of Mexico on 9 July and strengthened by 65 kt in the 24 hours ending at 00:00 UTC on 12 July, peaking at 120 kt with a pressure of 953 hPa on 11 July, far from land. It was exceptionally compact: hurricane-force winds reached only about 10 n mi from the center. Darby weakened, briefly regained major hurricane strength over marginal waters, then crossed into the central Pacific and fell apart in wind shear, passing about 100 n mi south of the Big Island of Hawaii without reported damage.

Two more storms reached Category 4 close to Mexico. Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified by 50 kt in a day and peaked at 115 kt on 2 October about 120 n mi southwest of Puerto Vallarta, before an eyewall replacement cycle and southwesterly shear cut it down. Hurricane Roslyn also peaked at 115 kt, on 22 October about 120 n mi west-southwest of Manzanillo, after steady and then rapid strengthening over waters near 30°C. Both reached a minimum pressure of 954 hPa in the archive.

Among the other hurricanes, Agatha peaked at 95 kt and Kay at 85 kt, with a large 25 n mi eye at its peak on 7 September. Frank, Blas, Estelle and Howard all topped out as Category 1 hurricanes over open water.

Landfalls and impacts

Hurricane Agatha made landfall near La Redonda, Oaxaca, at about 21:00 UTC on 30 May with winds estimated at 90 kt, the strongest May landfall in the eastern Pacific on record. Its rain did most of the harm: Tonameca measured 17.84 inches (453 mm), and flooding and mudslides in Oaxaca caused nine deaths, with six more people missing, according to the NHC report. No monetary damage figure was available to NHC.

Hurricane Kay weakened to a 60-kt tropical storm just before landfall near San Rafael, Baja California Sur, on 8 September, then brushed back along the peninsula. NHC counts at least five direct deaths from Kay and its remnants, four in Mexico and one in Forest Falls, California, where a debris flow destroyed a home, plus two indirect deaths in a road collapse in Baja California Sur. Kay damaged about 105 roads in Baja California Sur and cut power to at least 187,000 customers. Its remnants carried gale-force gusts and heavy rain into the southwestern United States, with a 95-kt gust on Cuyamaca Peak and 5.85 inches of rain at Mount Laguna in San Diego County; Wikipedia notes it was the first Pacific tropical cyclone to bring such effects to Southern California since Hurricane Nora in 1997.

Several weaker storms caused flooding along Mexico's southwest coast. Tropical Storm Lester moved inland over Oaxaca as a depression on 17 September; NHC lists one direct death, a fisherman off Guerrero, and flooding in more than 400 homes in that state. Rainbands from Tropical Storm Madeline, passing offshore, were linked to two flood deaths in southwestern Mexico. Tropical Storm Javier's bands soaked southern Baja California a week before Kay.

The two October hurricanes both struck west-central Mexico. Orlene passed over the Islas Marías and came ashore as a 70-kt Category 1 hurricane near Caimanero, Sinaloa, on 3 October; NHC reports no deaths, credited to evacuations and closures, and at least 12 million pesos (about US$600,000) in damage in San Blas municipality alone. Roslyn made landfall at about 11:20 UTC on 23 October near Santa Cruz, Nayarit, as a 105-kt Category 3 hurricane, the strongest eastern Pacific landfall since Hurricane Patricia in 2015. NHC records three direct deaths and one indirect death in Nayarit, about 160,000 customers without power, and 80 percent of homes destroyed on the island of Mexcaltitán.

Two storms from the Atlantic

2022 was the first season since 1996 in which more than one storm crossed between the Atlantic and Pacific intact. Bonnie emerged off Nicaragua on 2 July, the first survivor of the crossing since Hurricane Otto in 2016, and became a Category 3 hurricane on 5 July before weakening over cooler water west of Mexico. Julia made landfall in Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane on 9 October, reached the Pacific as a weakened tropical storm and made a final landfall near Acajutla, El Salvador, on 10 October.

Julia's rains were deadly across Central America. NHC counts 35 direct deaths from flash floods and mudslides over the storm's whole life, including 14 in Guatemala and 10 in El Salvador, where five of the dead were soldiers on rescue missions. Because both storms kept their Atlantic names and began in the Atlantic, their tracks sit outside this season's storm list on the site, though NHC counts them in its eastern Pacific totals. No names from the 2022 list were retired, so it returns in 2028.