2019 Atlantic hurricane season

A busy season for storm counts

By the number of named storms, 2019 was well above the 1981 to 2010 average of about 12, and at the time it tied 1969 as the fourth most active Atlantic season on record. The hurricane totals were much closer to normal, with six hurricanes against an average of about six and three major hurricanes against an average of about three. Accumulated cyclone energy, which combines storm strength and duration, came to 132.2, and it was the fourth above-average season in a row. The site's counts, taken from US one-minute winds in the IBTrACS archive, match the season totals in the National Hurricane Center best track, including the subtropical storms Andrea and Rebekah.

Most forecasters had expected a near-average season. Early outlooks pointed to a weak El Niño and near-normal or slightly cool ocean temperatures, and the number of named storms ended up above every published forecast, while the hurricane and major hurricane counts stayed within the predicted ranges. A stronger West African monsoon, warmer than average sea surface temperatures and low wind shear, especially over the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, helped activity run higher than expected.

Much of the storm count came from weak, brief systems, particularly late in the season, while most of the energy came from a few long-lived hurricanes in late August and September. Five systems formed in the Gulf of Mexico, tying 1957 and 2003 for the most in one season.

Long pauses, then a crowded September

The first storm came before the official start of the season. Subtropical Storm Andrea formed southwest of Bermuda on 20 May and lasted only about a day before dry air and wind shear broke it down. It made 2019 the fifth year in a row with a named storm before June, a new record.

June passed without a storm. In mid-July Hurricane Barry formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a weather system that had drifted south from the central United States, and a short-lived tropical depression formed near the Bahamas on 22 July. Then came almost a month with no new cyclones, until Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the open ocean southeast of Nova Scotia on 20 August. Hurricane Dorian and Tropical Storm Erin followed before the month was out.

September was the busiest month by far, with seven named storms: Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo. Several were active at once, and the month brought both the season's worst flooding, from Tropical Storm Imelda in Texas, and its second Category 5 hurricane, Lorenzo.

October brought five more storms, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo and Rebekah, but none lasted more than three days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Several formed from or near non-tropical lows over cool water in the north Atlantic, and Nestor and Olga became post-tropical before their centers reached the US Gulf Coast. Tropical Storm Sebastien formed northeast of the Leeward Islands on 19 November and became extratropical on 24 November, closing the season.

Dorian, Lorenzo and Humberto

Hurricane Dorian was the season's strongest storm, with one-minute winds of 160 kt and a central pressure of 910 hPa on 1 September. It reached that peak just as it made landfall at Elbow Cay on Great Abaco, the strongest hurricane in modern records to strike the Bahamas. Dorian had struggled with dry air for days after forming east of the Windward Islands on 24 August, then intensified rapidly over very warm water east of the Bahamas from 30 August.

Hurricane Lorenzo, the second Category 5, peaked at 140 kt and 925 hPa on 29 September in the central Atlantic, far from land. The National Hurricane Center called its peak the highest for any hurricane east of 50°W in records back to 1851, and it was the easternmost Category 5 on record in the basin. Lorenzo had formed just off West Africa on 23 September and went through two periods of rapid strengthening, split by an eyewall replacement cycle, before wind shear and cooler water weakened it quickly.

Hurricane Humberto was the third major hurricane, peaking at 110 kt and 950 hPa on 18 September as it passed just northwest of Bermuda. Hurricane Jerry reached 90 kt on 20 September, while Hurricane Barry and Hurricane Pablo peaked at Category 1. Of the storms that stayed below hurricane strength, Tropical Storm Sebastien was the strongest, at 60 kt in November.

Landfalls and impacts

Dorian did most of its damage in the northwestern Bahamas. Its steering currents collapsed near Great Abaco, and the hurricane crawled west to Grand Bahama, where it made a second landfall at 155 kt on 2 September. Abaco had at least tropical storm force winds for about three days and took 87 percent of the damage, with more than 75 percent of homes on the island damaged. The Bahamas Weather Service counted 74 deaths, 245 people were still missing at the time of its report, and damage in the Bahamas came to about $3.4 billion in 2019 US dollars.

Dorian then turned north and stayed off the Florida coast, strengthened again over the Gulf Stream and made landfall at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on 6 September with 85 kt winds. There were no direct deaths in the United States and four indirect deaths, three in Florida and one in North Carolina. US damage came to about $1.6 billion in 2019 dollars, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. As a strong post-tropical cyclone, Dorian then brought damaging winds, storm surge and coastal erosion to the Canadian Maritimes. Earlier in its life it had struck Barbados, Saint Lucia and the US Virgin Islands as a weaker storm.

Tropical Storm Imelda formed just off the Texas coast on 17 September and moved inland near Freeport within hours, but its slow-moving remnants dropped 44.29 inches of rain near Fannett in southeastern Texas, making it the fifth-wettest tropical cyclone on record in the contiguous United States. About 5,100 homes flooded in Jefferson County and up to 3,100 more in Harris, Liberty and Montgomery counties. Imelda caused five direct deaths, all from flooding in Texas, and damage near $5 billion in 2019 dollars.

Hurricane Barry made landfall in Louisiana on 13 July near Intracoastal City as a Category 1 hurricane. Its main effects came from rain and storm surge: flooding in southern Louisiana, more than 300,000 people without power, and 16.59 inches of rain at Dierks, Arkansas, the most from any tropical cyclone in that state. The hurricane report lists no deaths and about $600 million in damage in 2019 dollars.

Lorenzo never came near a coastline at full strength but still caused 19 direct deaths. Eleven crew members died when the tugboat Bourbon Rhode sank near its center on 26 September, and swells from the distant hurricane drowned eight people in rip currents and rough surf along the US East Coast. It later passed near the western Azores, destroying the commercial port on Flores. Humberto's rip currents caused two direct deaths in Florida and North Carolina, and its winds damaged trees, roofs and power lines across Bermuda, where damage reached at least $25 million in 2019 dollars.

Several weaker storms were also damaging. Tropical Storm Fernand brought flooding rains to northeastern Mexico, where one man drowned near Monterrey. Nestor's tornadoes and storm surge caused about $125 million in damage in Florida and the southeastern United States, in 2019 dollars, with no direct deaths and three indirect deaths in a car crash in South Carolina. The post-tropical remnants of Olga brought damaging winds from Louisiana to Tennessee, with one death in Tennessee and about $400 million in damage in 2019 dollars. Tropical Storm Karen caused flooding in Tobago and Puerto Rico, with no deaths reported.

Records and names

With Dorian and Lorenzo, 2019 became one of only a few Atlantic seasons with two Category 5 hurricanes, the first since 2017, and the fourth season in a row with at least one, beating the previous run of three from 2003 to 2005. Hurricane Pablo added a late record in October: it became a hurricane at 18.8°W near the Azores, the farthest north and east hurricane formation on record in the basin, just east of Hurricane Vince's mark from 2005.

The season used the 2013 name list, with Imelda in place of Ingrid, and Imelda, Nestor and Rebekah were used for the first time. The World Meteorological Organization retired Dorian in March 2021, a decision delayed a year by the COVID-19 pandemic, and replaced it with Dexter.