2019 Pacific hurricane season

Plenty of storms, few of them strong

By NOAA's yardstick, an average eastern and central Pacific season brings about 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, so 2019 was busier than normal in raw numbers. The site's archive records 20 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy, a measure combining strength and duration, of 111.5. Yet most of the season's storms were weak and brief: 12 of the 20 never reached hurricane strength, and several, such as Gil, Henriette and Priscilla, held tropical storm winds for little more than a day.

Forecasters had expected an active year. In May, Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional predicted 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, and NOAA gave a 70 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season with 15 to 22 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes and 4 to 8 major hurricanes. NOAA based its outlook on an El Niño expected to persist through the season, lowering wind shear and warming the ocean, and on a positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation that had kept sea surface temperatures above average since 2014. The named storms arrived as expected, but hurricanes were scarcer: the National Hurricane Center's own tally of seven was the lowest since 2010.

A late start, a quiet August and a crowded September

No storm formed in May for the first time since 2011, and the first tropical depression did not appear until 25 June, making 2019 one of the latest-starting seasons since reliable records began in 1971. That system became Hurricane Alvin, a minimal Category 1 storm that reached 65 kt on 28 June before cooler water and wind shear broke it down. Hurricane Barbara followed on 30 June and became the season's strongest storm within three days. July added Tropical Storm Cosme, a short-lived tropical depression, Tropical Storm Dalila and then two hurricanes, Erick and Flossie, which formed a day apart at the end of the month and headed west toward Hawaii.

August was the season's lull. Gil, Henriette and Ivo all formed during the month, but none became a hurricane, the first August without a new eastern Pacific hurricane since 1973. Tropical Storm Ivo came closest, peaking at 60 kt on 22 August and sweeping past Clarion Island, where sustained winds of about 61 mph and gusts to 76 mph were recorded.

September reversed the trend. Hurricane Juliette formed on the first day of the month, Tropical Storm Akoni became the first named storm of the year in the central Pacific a few days later, and after a short pause Hurricane Kiko, Tropical Storm Mario and Hurricane Lorena all formed between 12 and 17 September. On 20 September Kiko, Mario and Lorena were spinning in the eastern Pacific at the same time. Tropical Storm Narda formed on 29 September, the sixth named storm of the month, tying the record for the busiest September set in several earlier seasons, most recently 2005.

The final weeks were modest. Tropical Storm Ema formed quickly west of Hawaii on 12 October and lasted less than two days, and Tropical Storms Octave and Priscilla followed within the week, Priscilla moving ashore in Mexico almost as soon as it formed. Tropical Storm Raymond developed south of Mexico on 14 November, and the season's last tropical depression faded on 18 November, the final tropical-stage observation in the archive.

Barbara and the rapid intensifiers

Hurricane Barbara formed about 550 n mi south-southwest of Manzanillo on 30 June, already carrying 35 kt winds. Once wind shear eased on 1 July it strengthened rapidly, becoming a hurricane that evening and a major hurricane by midday on 2 July. It peaked at 135 kt (about 155 mph), at the upper end of Category 4, with a central pressure of 930 hPa at 00:00 UTC on 3 July, about 1,000 n mi southwest of Cabo San Lucas, showing a circular 15 n mi eye and outflow in every quadrant. Barbara then turned toward cooler water and more stable air and weakened almost as fast as it had strengthened, becoming post-tropical about 1,100 n mi east of Hilo on 6 July.

Rapid strengthening was the pattern among the season's other major hurricanes too. Hurricane Erick gained 50 kt in the 24 hours after becoming a hurricane and peaked at 115 kt on 30 July after crossing into the central Pacific. Hurricane Juliette strengthened by 60 kt in 36 hours and reached 110 kt, Category 3, on 3 September as its inner core passed over Clarion Island. Hurricane Kiko added about 75 kt in 36 hours from 14 September and peaked at 115 kt, Category 4, the next day.

Kiko then became the season's most persistent storm. After dry air and shear knocked it back to a tropical storm on 17 September, shifts in the steering ridge and in the depth of the storm itself sent it weaving back and forth across the western half of the eastern Pacific for a week, alternately drifting southwest and turning north. It finally lost its deep convection on 24 September just short of the central Pacific boundary. With 348 hours of recorded track, Kiko is the longest-lived system in the season's archive.

Landfalls in Mexico and near misses in Hawaii

Hurricane Lorena was the season's only hurricane landfall. The small storm formed on 17 September south-east of Acapulco, reached hurricane strength just off the Jalisco coast and came ashore near Chamela-Cuixmala with 65 kt winds around 06:00 UTC on 19 September, dropping 343 mm of rain there. It hugged the coast, re-emerged over water, peaked at 75 kt near the southern tip of Baja California and made a second landfall near La Ventana, Baja California Sur, with 70 kt winds early on 21 September. The National Hurricane Center reported significant damage to banana crops around Tomatlán and to La Ventana, and one direct death, a father swept out to sea by a large wave in Los Cabos while trying to save his son. Damage was put at about $50 million in 2019 US dollars.

Tropical Storm Narda, which followed a similar path a week later, was the deadlier storm. It formed about 120 n mi south of Acapulco on 29 September, came ashore near Lázaro Cárdenas with 40 kt winds the same day, re-emerged over the water off western Mexico and made a second landfall near Las Glorias at its 45 kt peak on 1 October. Its rain, reinforced by a broad gyre south of Mexico, fell heavily along almost the whole Pacific coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, with a peak of 15.48 inches (393 mm) at Coloso, Guerrero. The hurricane center recorded six direct deaths in Mexico, mostly from freshwater flooding: two each in Jalisco and Oaxaca and one each in Colima and Guerrero. It had no monetary damage estimate but expected losses in the tens of millions of US dollars.

Two weaker systems also reached southern Mexico. A disturbance advised on as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E moved inland over Oaxaca on 16 October without ever becoming a tropical cyclone, yet it produced 401.4 mm of rain at Morro de Mazatlán and heavy flooding across parts of Central America, where four deaths were reported in El Salvador. Tropical Storm Priscilla came ashore near Cuyutlán, Colima, on 20 October as a minimal tropical storm; its rains exceeded 4 inches in places, but no damage or casualties were reported.

Hawaii escaped with glancing blows. The remnants of Hurricane Barbara brought showers to the Island of Hawaii and Maui in early July, and the utility serving the islands linked power outages affecting about 45,000 customers to storms from those remnants. Hurricane Erick passed about 170 n mi south of the Island of Hawaii as a weakening tropical storm on 2 August, its outer bands causing minor flooding and landslides, and Flossie's remnant low brought locally heavy rain a few days later. The hurricane center had no reports of damage or casualties from any of the three storms. In November, moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond spread into Southern California and Arizona, bringing the region's first significant rain since May.

Names, Faxai and how the season is counted

Mario was used for the first time in 2019, replacing Manuel on the eastern Pacific list, and no names were retired after the season. The two storms named in the central Pacific, Akoni and Ema, took their names from the first of that region's four rotating lists, because the last name on the fourth list had been used for Hurricane Walaka in 2018. That first list had last started a cycle in 1982, 37 years earlier.

The National Hurricane Center's best track and the season article count 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, 17 of them named in the eastern Pacific and 2 in the central Pacific, with accumulated cyclone energy of about 97.7. The site's archive counts one more of each because it also includes Faxai, a western Pacific system whose archived track begins near the International Date Line and which reached 115 kt on 7 September. The archive's energy figure of 111.5 sums the calendar-year tropical-stage records for every storm in that set, Faxai included. The map also shows Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E, which never had a tropical stage and adds nothing to the counts.